An Improved Alternative to Heat Map Risk Matrices for Project Risk Prioritization

Authors

  • Jamie P Monat Worcester Polytechnic Institute United States Systems Engineering Program ECE Department.
  • Scott M Doremus Worcester Polytechnic Institute United States Systems Engineering Program ECE Department.

Abstract

In a previous article we discussed the weaknesses of the popular heat map style risk matrix for project risk prioritization, and we proposed an alternative called the risk adjusted loss (RAL) method. Although the RAL method demonstrated significant improvement, there were mechanical as well as interpretive issues associated with it. This paper describes improvements to the RAL method and experimentally demonstrates its superiority over the heat map style risk matrix for prioritizing project risks.

Author Biographies

  • Jamie P Monat, Worcester Polytechnic Institute United States Systems Engineering Program ECE Department.

    Jamie Peter Monat, Ph. D. Dr. Monat is a Professor of Practice within the Systems Engineering Program/ECE Department and the Foisie Business School at Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA, where he teaches (both online and face-to-face) and develops courses in Operations Risk Management, Project Management, System Optimization, Business Practices for Engineers, and Systems Thinking. Dr. Monat has both management and teaching experience in the business consulting, medical device, separations, food & beverage, and environmental industries, having served as President and founder of Business Growth Specialists, Inc., as President of Harvard Clinical Technology, as Sr. Vice-President of Pall Corporation, and in a variety of executive positions for Koch Membrane Systems, Inc. Dr. Monat’s current research interests include applications of systems thinking, business applications of logistic regression, emergence and self-organization, project risk management, operations risk analysis, and competency-based education. He has a B.S. in Aerospace and Mechanical Sciences from Princeton, and an M.S. and Ph.D. in Civil Engineering from Stanford. He is a member of INCOSE and the Project Management Institute.

  • Scott M Doremus, Worcester Polytechnic Institute United States Systems Engineering Program ECE Department.

    Scott Doremus is a Senior Lecturer at Worcester Polytechnic Institute where he teaches Data Analysis and Decision Making, Risk Management, System Optimization, Concepts of System Engineering, Systems Integration and Test, Quality Planning, Design and Control, Work Systems and Facilities Planning and Computer and Network Security. Scott has 37 years of practical experience in the U.S. military, naval combat systems integration, aircraft avionics, medical instruments, networking equipment, consulting, program management, technical leadership and telecommunications. Scott began his lecturing career as an adjunct instructor of systems integration and is now a full time instructor for the Electrical and Computer Engineering, School of Business and Computer Science departments. Scott’s research interests lie in decisional analysis, risk, and the integration of human factors in engineering. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree from National University San Diego and a Master of Science degree from DePaul University in Chicago.

References

Aven, Terje. (2017). “Improving Risk Characterisations in Practical Situations by Highlighting Knowledge Aspects, with Applications to Risk Matrices,” Reliability Engineering and System Safety 167, 42-48

Ball, David J., and J. Watt. (2013). “Further Thoughts on the Utility of Risk Matrices,” Risk Analysis 33 (11), 2068-2078

Clemen, Robert T. and Reilly, Terence. (2014). Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools, 3rd Ed., South-Western Cengage Learning, Mason, OH, pp. 640-654

Cox, L. A. Jr. (2008). What’s Wrong with Risk Matrices? Risk Analysis, 28(2), 497.

Cox, L. A. Jr., as quoted in Hubbard, Douglas W. (2009). The Failure of Risk Management, Wiley, Hoboken, NJ, p. 123

Duijm, Nijs Jan. (2015). “Recommendations On the Use and Design of Risk Matrices,” Safety Science, 76, pp. 21-31

Hubbard, Douglas W. (2009). The Failure of Risk Management, Wiley, Hoboken, NJ, 122-125

Kahneman, Daniel and Tversky, Amos (1979). "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk" (PDF). Econometrica 47 (2): 263–291. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.407.1910. doi:10.2307/1914185. ISSN 0012-9682. JSTOR 1914185.

Microsoft (2017), “Risk Management Process Overview,” https://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/library/cc535304.aspx

Monat, Jamie, and Doremus, Scott, (2018). “Deficiencies in and Alternatives to Heat Map Risk Matrices for Project Risk Prioritization,” Journal of Modern Project Management, 104-112, DOI Number 10.19255/JMPM01611

Oboni, Franco, and Oboni, Cesar. (2013). “What You Need to Know About Risk Management Methods,” Riskope International, Vancouver, BC, Canada, www.riskope.com

Pickering, Alexander, and Cowley, Stephen P. (2010). “Risk Matrices: Implied Accuracy and False Assumptions,” J. of Health and Safety Research and Practice, 2 (1), 9-16

Project Management Institute (2008). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® guide)—Fourth edition. Newtown Square, PA

Systems Engineering Process Office. (2002). 212, Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center, “Risk Management Process,” PR-SPP-04 v3.0

Thomas, Philip, Bratvold, Reidar, and Bickel, J. Eric. (2014). “The Risk of Using Risk Matrices,” SPE Economics and Management 6 (2), 56-66

Wall, Kent D. (2011). “The Trouble with Risk Matrices,” Naval Postgraduate School (DRMI) Working Paper

Wijnia, Ype. (2012). “Asset Risk Management: Issues in the Design and Use of the Risk Matrix,” In: Mathew J., Ma L., Tan A., Weijnen M., Lee J. (Eds.) Engineering Asset Management and Infrastructure Sustainability, Springer, London, 1043-1059

Downloads

Published

2022-05-20

How to Cite

An Improved Alternative to Heat Map Risk Matrices for Project Risk Prioritization. (2022). The Journal of Modern Project Management, 7(4). https://journalmodernpm.com/manuscript/index.php/jmpm/article/view/JMPM02211