Quantitative Risk Analysis in Megaprojects Schedules: a critical comparison between the theoretical findings and the empirical evidence from a brazilian oil and gas company

Authors

  • Jânio Plácido Petrobras Company Brazil
  • Andre Barcaui Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Brazil
  • Fernando Araújo UFF – Fluminense Federal University Brazil
  • Istefani Carisio UFRGS – Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul Brazil

Keywords:

risk analysis, project schedule, risk management, project management, megaprojects

Abstract

Megaprojects are temporary endeavors that involve high investments and long term results, high degree of uncertainty and risks. The purpose of this article is to stablish a critical comparative analysis of the quantitative risk analysis process in megaproject schedules. The methodology includes a study of the scientific literature and the empirical evidence obtained from interviews with specialists of an oil and gas segment company. A systematic survey of the scientific literature was carried out in ISI Web of Science, Scopus and Scielo databases. The primary data collection was carried out through interviews with a sample of 10 professionals with high level of seniority. As results, the evidences indicate that there is restricted scientific literature on the subject in peer reviewed journals, which suggests an academic contribution of the present study. In addition, Monte Carlo simulation is the most frequent technique used in risk management of megaproject scheduling that provides precision to the probability of project completion data. Besides, it was observed an existence of subjectivities, such as the bias of experts, not judgment of the time estimates of activities, and gaps, such as an inconsistency of the logic of the schedules, no process of quantitative risk analysis. Finally, it was detected the need for training in risk management of hierarchical senior managers, as a way to contribute to the achievement of better results with the use of non-decision-making practice.

Author Biographies

  • Jânio Plácido, Petrobras Company Brazil

    Holds a Master's Degree in Management Systems from Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Professional PMP (Project Management Professional) from PMI (Project Management Institute), graduated in Mechanical Engineering (UFPB); postgraduate degree in Economic Engineering and Industrial Administration (UFRJ); Analysis, Project and Systems Management (PUC-RJ); MBA in Controlling and Economic Management (USP); MBA in Project Management (FGV-RJ) and International Executive MBA (UCI - USA). He has been employed by Petrobras for 33 years, currently working in Risk Management and Analysis in implementation of megaprojects to develop oil and gas production. He is author of several papers on the subject, as: Quantitative Risk Analysis in Megaproject Schedules: An Analysis of Literature (MundoPM, Curitiba, v. 12, pp. 1-15, 2016); Risk Analysis in Megaprojects Schedules: A Proposal for Modeling Based on Literature and Specialists (Iberoamerican Journal of Project Mangement (Online, v. 8, pp. 12-34, 2017); Proposal for a Model to Risk Analysis in Megaproject Schedules. In: VII ENFEPro, 2017, Rio de Janeiro. Fluminense Meeting of Production Engineering. Rio de Janeiro: Fluminense Society of Production Engineering (SFEPro), 2017.

  • Andre Barcaui, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Brazil

    Has a postdoctoral in Administration from FEA/USP, a PhD in Administration from UNR, and a Masters in Systems Administration from UFF. He holds both an Information Technology as well as a Psychology degree. Former IBM Services Manager and Hewlett-Packard PMO Manager for Latin America. He is a professor, author and speaker and has earned his PMP certification in 1999, as a co-founder and a Council Member of PMI Chapter Rio de Janeiro. He holds a Master Coach Certificate by the Behavioral Coaching Institute (BCI) and a Scrum Master certification by the Scrum Alliance. Five management books published in Brazil, one of then in English available thru Kindle store.

  • Fernando Araújo, UFF – Fluminense Federal University Brazil

    Has postdoctoral studies in Production Engineering at UFRGS – Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (Porto Alegre, Brazil). He has a Ph.D in Production Engineering from PUC-Rio (Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro), a Master’s Degree in Management Systems and bachlor degree in Production Engineering from UFF – Fluminense Federal University. He is currently a professor at the Department of Production Engineering and at the Graduate Program in Management Systems of Fluminense Federal University (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), where he is the Lead Researcher at NECSOS – Nucleos of Creative Economy, Stakeholders, Organizations and Society (www.necsos.org). His research interests include comparative studies between stakeholders in operations and services projects and processes.

  • Istefani Carisio, UFRGS – Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul Brazil

    Associate Professor of Production and Transport Engineering at UFRGS,coordinates the research project Management of Design projects in theresearch group IICD-UFRGS (Institute of Competitiveness and DesignInnovation).He holds a PhD and postdoctoral degree in Production Engineering fromthe Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul

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Published

2022-05-20

Issue

Vol. 6 No. 2 (2018): The Journal of Modern Project Management

Section

Articles-JMPM

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Copyright (c) 2022 Jânio Plácido, Andre Barcaui, Fernando Araújo, Istefani Carisio

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Quantitative Risk Analysis in Megaprojects Schedules: a critical comparison between the theoretical findings and the empirical evidence from a brazilian oil and gas company. (2022). The Journal of Modern Project Management, 6(2). https://journalmodernpm.com/manuscript/index.php/jmpm/article/view/JMPM01705

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