Modern Project Management

(ISSN: 2317-3963)

News from Academy

Sam L. Savage
Stanford University – California – US; Executive Director on Probability United States


Curing the Flaw of Averages by Re-thinking Uncertainty

Such uncertainties drive decision making at all levels of business and government, where they are often replaced with single “average” best guesses. Unfortunately this leads to a set of systematic mathematical errors known collectively as the flaw of averages. This misconception helps explain why so many things are behind schedule, below projection, and beyond budget.

Keywords: probability management, uncertainty.



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