News from Academy
Sam L. Savage
Stanford University – California – US; Executive Director on Probability Management.org United States
Abstract
Curing the Flaw of Averages by Re-thinking Uncertainty
Such uncertainties drive decision making at all levels of business and government, where they are often replaced with single “average” best guesses. Unfortunately this leads to a set of systematic mathematical errors known collectively as the flaw of averages. This misconception helps explain why so many things are behind schedule, below projection, and beyond budget.
Keywords: probability management ,uncertainty ,