Modern Project Management

(ISSN: 2317-3963)

Experts’ Engagement in Risk Analysis: A Model Merging Analytic Hierarchy Process and Monte Carlo Simulation

Cintia Bardauil Baptistucci
Master in Chemical Engineer at Department of Chemical Engineer, University of São Paulo (USP) Brazil
Gerson Pech
Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro Brazil
Marly Monteiro Carvalho
Production Engineering Department of the Polytechnic School University of São Paulo (USP) Brazil


This paper presents a risk analysis model merging Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) that enables risk prioritization, providing a contingent cost analysis. The model has six steps: risk factors definition; risk frequency prioritization using the AHP; probability estimation for risk effects; probability distribution for other variabilities; correlation analysis between cost and time; and MCS for cost estimation. The proposed model was applied to 12 industrial wastewater projects. Data were gathered from interviews and documents. The results show three major contributions: a decision tool to identify, analyze and assess the risks, experts’ engagement (knowledge and perception), and visual output for risk analysis.

Keywords: Risk Management, Risk Factors, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Monte Carlo Simulation, Construction Projects.



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