Analysis of Project Duration Uncertainty using Global Sensitivity Analysis

Authors

  • Edelmira Ahumada Galvez Department of Mining and Metallurgy Engineering, Universidad Católica del Norte, Antofagasta- Chile Chile
  • Joaquín Ordieres-Meré Universidad de La Rioja, La Rioja, Spain
  • Salvador F. Capuz-Rizo Department of Engineering Projects, Polytechnic University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain

Keywords:

Managing project, project duration, global sensitivity analysis, schedule

Abstract

Estimating the duration of a project is important in project management. The dependency structure matrix has been used to estimate the duration of projects, and it has proven to be useful especially in complex projects, for example project with activity overlapping. This estimate is based on the duration of the activities, their interrelationships and the permitted level of overlap. However, these variables have uncertainty that generate uncertainty in the duration of the project. The methods of global sensitivity analysis Morris and Sobol' are used in this study to identify the key activities that affect the uncertainty in the duration of the project. It is shown that adequate control of the uncertainty in these activities significantly reduces the uncertainty in the duration of the project. Examples with and without overlapping are used to explain the methodologies.

Author Biographies

  • Edelmira Ahumada Galvez, Department of Mining and Metallurgy Engineering, Universidad Católica del Norte, Antofagasta- Chile Chile

    Edelmira Gálvez joined the Department of Mines and Metallurgical Engineering, the Universidad Católica del Norte in 1999 as assistant professor. Currently, she is enrolled in the doctoral program in project engineering at Universidad Politécnica de Valencia, Spain. Professor Gálvez graduated in Metallurgical Engineering from the Universidad Católica del Norte (1989, Chile), and Industrial Engineering from the University of Antofagasta, (1998, Chile). During the period 1992-1994, she studied at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (USA), where she obtained the PD degree. Professor Gálvez’s principal research interest is the use of a systems approach to solving problems in mineral process, design and analysis. In particular, his research covers the development of systematic methods and tools for solving problems in the mining industries, which can be classified in terms of the following topics: modelling, design, analysis, and optimization. Professor Gálvez has published 19 peer reviewed journal articles, more than 30 conference papers, and more than 10 book chapters.

  • Joaquín Ordieres-Meré, Universidad de La Rioja, La Rioja, Spain

    He has been a full professor in Project Management since 1997 and currently works at the UPM (ETSII). His researchinterests include project management, business intelligence and business analytics as well as decision support systems. He servesas reviewer for different peer-reviewed journals and is a member of the editorial board of IDMMM journal.

  • Salvador F. Capuz-Rizo, Department of Engineering Projects, Polytechnic University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain

    PhD in Industrial Engineering and Professor of Project Engineering since 2003 at Universitat Politècnica deValència (Spain). His research areas are Project Management, Environmental Concious Design and Eco-efficiency. Currently serves as Presidentof Spanish Project Management and Engineering Association (AEIPRO).

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Published

2022-05-20

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 3 (2015): The Journal of Modern Project Management

Section

Articles-JMPM

License

Copyright (c) 2022 Edelmira Ahumada Galvez, Joaquín Ordieres-Meré, Salvador F. Capuz-Rizo

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Analysis of Project Duration Uncertainty using Global Sensitivity Analysis. (2022). The Journal of Modern Project Management, 2(3). https://journalmodernpm.com/manuscript/index.php/jmpm/article/view/174

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