A Technique to Calculate Correlations between Software Projects in a Portfolio Selection Setting Based on the Modern Portfolio Theory

Authors

  • Helio Rodrigues Costa COPPE / UFRJ – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Brazil
  • Marcio O. Barros COPPE / UFRJ – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Brazil
  • Ana Regina C. Rocha COPPE / UFRJ – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Brazil

Keywords:

Software Project Portfolio Selection, Modern Portfolio Theory, Project Selection, Project Correlation

Abstract

Selecting software projects to build a portfolio is a risky task. The Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) has been proposed by many authors to support selecting the best group of projects that maximize the expected return x risk ratio of a portfolio. However, one major issue has to be resolved to allow the application of the theory when migrating its concepts to a project selection context, i.e, the way correlations between projects are calculated. We present a new technique to calculate them objectively, based on a risk scenario approach.

Author Biographies

  • Helio Rodrigues Costa, COPPE / UFRJ – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Brazil

    Hélio R. Costa has a PhD degree in Computer Science and System Engineering. Former PMO leader of strategic softwares projects at Brazilian Air Force. Guest MBA Professor at Fundação Getúlio Vargas and Fundação Dom Cabral. Research Areas: Project and Portfolio Management, Risk Management, Decision Making and Simulation.

  • Marcio O. Barros, COPPE / UFRJ – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Brazil

    Marcio de O. Barros has a PhD degree in Computer Science and System Engineering. Associate Professor at Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Reviewer of journals like Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering, Empirical Software Engineering. Research Areas: Project Management, System Dynamics, Modeling and Simulation.

  • Ana Regina C. Rocha, COPPE / UFRJ – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Brazil

    Ana Regina C. da Rocha has a PhD degree in Computer Science and System Engineering. Associate Professor at Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. She has coordinated the development of the Brazilian Software Process Model. Research Areas: Software Quality, Software Process and Knowledge Management.

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Published

2022-05-20

How to Cite

A Technique to Calculate Correlations between Software Projects in a Portfolio Selection Setting Based on the Modern Portfolio Theory. (2022). The Journal of Modern Project Management, 2(2). https://journalmodernpm.com/manuscript/index.php/jmpm/article/view/157

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