An advanced tool for dynamic risk modeling and analysis in projects management

Authors

  • Afshin Jamshidi Laval University, Quebec, Canada Department of Mechanical Engineering Department of Operations and Decision Systems Canada
  • Daoud Ait-Kadi Université Laval Canada
  • Angel Ruiz Laval University, Quebec, Canada Department of Mechanical Engineering Department of Operations and Decision Systems Canada

Keywords:

Project Management, Dynamic risk modeling, Risk assessment, Fuzzy cognitive maps, Prediction

Abstract

Risk is inherently present in all projects. Quite often, many projects fail to achieve their time, quality, and budget goals. Despite its high relevance to the success of megaprojects, risk management remains one of the least developed research issues. Therefore, advanced risk assessment is essential in minimizing losses and enhancing profitability. This paper proposes an advanced decision support tool using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) for dynamic risk assessment in project management. The proposed tool is able to predict the impact of each risk on the other risks or the outcomes of projects by considering uncertainties and complex interdependencies among risk factors. This tool could help project managers to manage the risks in a more effective and precise way and offer better risk mitigation solutions. The proposed tool could be undertaken by all organizations with the highest level of risk management maturity in the largest and most complex projects. In addition, it can be applied as an advanced decision support tool in variety of problems such as prioritization, failure analysis, etc. An academic numerical example related to outsourcing illustrates the applicability and simplicity of the proposed method.

Author Biographies

  • Afshin Jamshidi, Laval University, Quebec, Canada Department of Mechanical Engineering Department of Operations and Decision Systems Canada

    Dr. Afshin Jamshidi is currently working as a Postdoctoral researcher at University of Montreal and a research assistant in department of Industrial Engineering at Laval University, Quebec, Canada. He received his PhD degree in 2017 from Faculty of Science and Engineering at Laval University. He served as a lecturer from September 2009 to December 2011 in department of Industrial Engineering at Tabriz University, Iran. His main research interests are data mining, dynamic risk analysis, disease prediction, healthcare systems management, advanced decision support systems, and reliability and maintenance engineering. He is a member of Interuniversity Research Center on Entreprise Networks, Logistics and Transportation (CIRRELT), Center for Interdisciplinary Research in Rehabilitation and Social Integration (CIRRRIS), and CHUM Research Centre.

  • Daoud Ait-Kadi, Université Laval Canada

    Dr. Afshin Jamshidi is currently working as a Postdoctoral researcher at University of Montreal and a research assistant in department of Industrial Engineering at Laval University, Quebec, Canada. He received his PhD degree in 2017 from Faculty of Science and Engineering at Laval University. He served as a lecturer from September 2009 to December 2011 in department of Industrial Engineering at Tabriz University, Iran. His main research interests are data mining, dynamic risk analysis, disease prediction, healthcare systems management, advanced decision support systems, and reliability and maintenance engineering. He is a member of Interuniversity Research Center on Entreprise Networks, Logistics and Transportation (CIRRELT), Center for Interdisciplinary Research in Rehabilitation and Social Integration (CIRRRIS), and CHUM Research Centre.

  • Angel Ruiz, Laval University, Quebec, Canada Department of Mechanical Engineering Department of Operations and Decision Systems Canada

    Angel Ruiz is professor in the department of Operations and Decision Systems at Laval University. He holds a Ph.D. from the Université de Technologie de Compiègne (France). His current research interests are in emergency logistics, healthcare management, and medical emergency planning. He is member of the Interuniversity Research Center on Enterprise Networks, Logistics and Transportation (CIRRELT) and head of the CIRRELT’s Laboratory on Healthcare Networks.

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Published

2022-05-20

Issue

Vol. 5 No. 1 (2017): The Journal of Modern Project Management

Section

Articles-JMPM

License

Copyright (c) 2022 Afshin Jamshidi, Daoud Ait-Kadi, Angel Ruiz

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

An advanced tool for dynamic risk modeling and analysis in projects management. (2022). The Journal of Modern Project Management, 5(1). https://journalmodernpm.com/manuscript/index.php/jmpm/article/view/JMPM01302

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