On the use of Schedule Risk Analysis for Project Management

Authors

  • Mario Vanhoucke Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University; Belgium Technology and Operations Management Area, Vlerick Business School, Ghent, Belgium; University College London, United Kingdom Belgium

Keywords:

schedule risk analysis, Monte-Carlo simulation, change impact analysis

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to give an overview on the existing literature and recent developments on the research on Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA) in Project Management (PM) to measure the sensitivity of activities and resources in the project network. SRA is a technique that relies on Monte-Carlo simulation runs to analyze the impact of changes in activity durations and costs on the overall project time and cost objectives.

First, the paper gives an overview of the most commonly known sensitivity metrics from literature that are widely used by PM software tools to measure the time and cost sensitivity of activities as well as sensitivity for project resources. Second, the relevance of these metrics in an integrated project control setting is discussed based on some recent research studies. Finally, a short discussion on the challenges for future research is given. All sections in this paper are based on research studies done in the past for which references will be given throughout the manuscript.

Author Biography

  • Mario Vanhoucke, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University; Belgium Technology and Operations Management Area, Vlerick Business School, Ghent, Belgium; University College London, United Kingdom Belgium

    Prof. Dr. Mario Vanhoucke is professor at the Ghent University and head of the department of Information Science and Operations Management. He is also part-time professor at Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School (Belgium) and University College of London (UK). He teaches Project Management, Business Statistics and Applied Operations Research. Read more. Teaching Mario teaches “Project Management” in the MSc course module CEGEG041 at University College of London (UK) and Ghent University (Belgium). He also teaches “Decision Sciences” and “Business Statistics” at Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School (Belgium) and Beijing University (China), “Applied Operations Research” at Ghent University (Belgium), and Read more. Research Mario‘s research interests include project management, project risk management and project control (Earned Value Management) as well as health-care optimisation and machine scheduling. Here you can see some of his recent research projects. http://www.ucl.ac.uk/msi/profile/mario-vanhoucke/research Publications “New computational results for the discrete time/cost trade-off problem in project networks”, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1998, 49 (11), 1153-1163 (with E. Demeulemeester, B. Foubert, W. Herroelen and M. Vanhoucke). “An exact procedure for the resource-constrained weighted earliness-tardiness project scheduling problem”, Annals of Operations Research, 2001, 102, 179-196 (with E. Demeulemeester and W. Herroelen). “On maximizing the net present value of a project under renewable resource constraints”, Management Science, 2001, 47, 1113-1121 (with E. Demeulemeester and W. Herroelen). "Scheduling projects with linearly time-dependent cash flows to maximize the net present value", International Journal of Production Research, 2001, 39, 3159-3181 (with E. Demeulemeester and W. Herroelen). “Discrete time/cost trade-offs in project scheduling with time-switch constraints”, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2002, 53, 741-751 (with E. Demeulemeester and W. Herroelen). “A random network generator for activity-on-the-node networks”, Journal of Scheduling, 2003, 6, 13-34 (with E. Demeulemeester and W. Herroelen). “Progress payments in project scheduling problems”, European Journal of Operational Research, 2003, 148, 604-620 (with E. Demeulemeester and W. Herroelen). “New computational results for the discrete time/cost trade-off problem with time-switch constraints”, European Journal of Operational Research, 2005, 165, 359-374. “A bi-population based genetic algorithm for the RCPSP”, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2005, 3483, 378-387 (with D. Debels). “A hybrid scatter search/electromagnetism meta-heuristic for project scheduling”, European Journal of Operational Research, 2006, 169, 638-653 (with D. Debels, B. De Reyck, and R. Leus). “Work continuity constraints in project scheduling”, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2006, 132, 14-25. “A simulation and evaluation of earned value metrics to forecast the project duration”, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2007, 58, 1361–1374 (with S. Vandevoorde). “A decomposition-based genetic algorithm for the resource-constrained project scheduling problem”, Operations Research, 2007, 55, 457-469 (with D. Debels). “An electromagnetism meta-heuristic for the nurse scheduling problem”, Journal of Heuristics, 2007, 13, 359-385 (with B. Maenhout). “A simulation analysis of errors in the design of costing systems”, The Accounting Review, 2007, 82, 939-962 (with E. Labro). “The discrete time/cost trade-off problem: extensions and heuristic procedures”, Journal of Scheduling, 2007, 10, 311-326 (with D. Debels). “A comparison and hybridization of crossover operators for the nurse scheduling problem”, Annals of Operations Research, 2008, 159, 333 – 353 (with B. Maenhout). “An evaluation of the adequacy of project network generators with systematically sampled networks”, European Journal of Operational Research, 2008, 187, 511–524 (with J. Coelho, D. Debels, B. Maenhout and L. Tavares). “The impact of various activity assumptions on the lead-time and resource utilization of resource-constrained projects”, Computers and Industrial Engineering, 2008, 54, 140–154 (with D. Debels). “Setup times and fast tracking in resource-constrained project scheduling”, Computers and Industrial Engineering, 2008, 54, 1062-1070. “Diversity in resource consumption patterns and costing system robustness to errors”, Management Science, 2008, 54, 1715 – 1730 (with E. Labro). “On the characterisation and generation of nurse scheduling problem instances”, European Journal of Operational Research, 2009, 196, 457–467 (with B. Maenhout). “The impact of incorporating nurse-specific characteristics in a cyclical scheduling approach”, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2009, 60, 1683-1698 (with B. Maenhout). “A finite capacity production scheduling procedure for a Belgian steel company”, International Journal of Production Research, 2009, 47, 561 – 584 (with D. Debels). “A scatter search heuristic for maximizing the net present value of a resource-constrained project with fixed activity cash flows”, International Journal of Production Research, 2010, 48, 1983-2001. “A genetic algorithm for the preemptive and non-preemptive multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling problem”, European Journal of Operational Research, 2010, 201, 409-418 (with V. Van Peteghem). “Using activity sensitivity and network topology information to monitor project time performance”, Omega - International Journal of Management Science, 2010, 38, 359-370. “Introducing optimization techniques to students: An exam case distribution model”, INFORMS Transactions on Education, 2010, 206, 155-167. “A hybrid scatter search heuristic for personalized crew rostering in the airline industry”, European Journal of Operational Research, 2010, 206, 155-167 (with B. Maenhout). “Branching strategies in a branch-and-price approach for a multiple objective nurse scheduling problem”, Journal of Scheduling, 2010, 13, 77-93 (with B. Maenhout). “On the dynamic use of project performance and schedule risk information during project tracking”, Omega - International Journal of Management Science, 2011, 39, 416-426. “Using resource scarceness characteristics to solve the multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling problem”, Journal of Heuristics, 2011, To appear (with V. Van Peteghem) “An evolutionary approach for the nurse rerostering problem”, Computers and Operations Research, 2011, 38, 1400-1411 (with B. Maenhout). “Multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling using RCPSP and SAT solvers”, European Journal of Operational Research, 2011, to appear (with J. Coelho) “On maximizing the net present value of a project under renewable resource constraints”, Management Science. “A decomposition-based genetic algorithm for the resource-constrained project scheduling problem”, Operations Research. “On maximizing the net present value of a project under renewable resource constraints”, Management Science, 2001, 47, 1113-1121 (with E. Demeulemeester, E. and W. Herroelen). “A simulation analysis of errors in the design of costing systems”, The Accounting Review, 2007, 82, 939-962 (with E. Labro). “A decomposition-based genetic algorithm for the resource-constrained project scheduling problem”, Operations Research, 2007, 55, 457-469 (with D. Debels). “Diversity in resource consumption patterns and costing system robustness to errors”, Management Science, 2008, 54, 1715 – 1730 (with E. Labro).

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Published

2022-05-20

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 3 (2015): The Journal of Modern Project Management

Section

Articles-JMPM

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Copyright (c) 2022 Mario Vanhoucke

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How to Cite

On the use of Schedule Risk Analysis for Project Management. (2022). The Journal of Modern Project Management, 2(3). https://journalmodernpm.com/manuscript/index.php/jmpm/article/view/166

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